[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 2 09:20:58 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind stream further weakened today. Solar wind speed
gradually decreased from around 450 km/s to 380 km/s during the
UT day today. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field remained close to the normal value for most parts of the
UT day today. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11110101
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 5 12211212
Learmonth 2 12110000
Camden 0 01100000
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 3 11210111
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1211 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 4 Quiet
03 Jul 3 Quiet
04 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Similar conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic-E regions on low and mid latitudes
and spread-F conditions mainly on mid and high latitudes
were observed over the last 24 hours. HF conditions are
expected to remain mostly normal on most locations for the
next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 4 near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remained mostly close to the normal values
for low and mid latitude regions with strong sporadic E
on 01 July. Some degradations in HF conditions observed
on high latitudes on this day. HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 79300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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