[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 23 10:05:45 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low, expected to continue.
Solar wind speeds dropped down to near 300km/s while the IMF
was relatively stable over the day. Solar wind conditions expected
to remain quiet next 2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11211111
Darwin 3 01211112
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 3 11111111
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 1 01110011
Hobart 3 11210111
Casey(Ant) 8 23322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 1 Quiet
24 Jan 1 Quiet
25 Jan 1 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at all latitudes over
the UT day (22 Jan), expected to continue next 3 days (23-25
Jan).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Strong sporadic-E events again observed throughout the
region, particularly in S.Aus/NZ. MUFs were mildly depressed
in S.Aus with some significant local depressions during the day
in the equatorial region. Continuing Sporadic-E events likely
from Equatorial to S.Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing variable
HF conditions with some mild MUF depressions 23 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 54100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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