[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jan             14 Jan             15 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind is at normal levels and is expected to 
remain at this level for the next three days. Active region 1010 
has decayed slightly over the UT day and is not likely to produce 
any significant flares at this time. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Darwin               1   10000012
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            2   20100011
      Camden               0   00000011
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               0   00000011
      Casey(Ant)           5   22211112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jan     4    Quiet 
14 Jan     3    Quiet 
15 Jan     3    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jan   -30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jan   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
14 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
15 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Generally depressed ionospheric conditions observed 
most regions. Sporadic-E events observed mainly central-S Aus 
latitudes. Persistent and intense sporadic-E events probable 
from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing variable 
conditions with occasional MUF depressions next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    35300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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