[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 11 10:22:36 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind is at normal levels and is expected to
remain at this level for the next three days. Expect solar activity
to be very low, however, active region 1010 is a growing region
with 11 spots at 2043 UT 10 January and has a slight chance of
producing a C-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22221011
Darwin 3 12120011
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 4 22221011
Camden 3 12220011
Canberra 3 12220001
Hobart 5 23221011
Casey(Ant) 8 3--32112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1110 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 4 Quiet
12 Jan 4 Quiet
13 Jan 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan -26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Sporadic-E conditions observed at most stations, particularly
in the south Australian regions. Persistent and intense sporadic-E
events probable from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions. Equatorial
and north Australian regions may return to predicted MUF levels due
to a slight increase in solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 67900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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