[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 4 10:26:29 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low. The Earth is now under
the influence of a mild coronal hole wind stream which should
decline over the next 1-2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 23332212
Darwin - --------
Townsville 10 23332222
Learmonth 10 23332312
Camden 8 23232211
Canberra 7 23232111
Hobart 9 23332211
Casey(Ant) 18 35-43222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 8 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0100 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 4 Quiet
05 Jan 4 Quiet
06 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity remains moderately elevated. There
were two sustained periods of negative Bz during the early and
mid parts of the UT day. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled
with isolated active intervals at high latitudes only. Expect
mostly quiet conditions next three days with the chance of isolated
unsettled to active intervals at high latitudes on day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
05 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
06 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions/enhancements observed Equatorial/
Aus regions with general improvement in conditions Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Periods of intense sporadic-E conditions observed
Central-S Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing variable conditions
next three days. Persistent and intense sporadic-E events probable
from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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