[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 14 10:43:50 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low.
Region 1012 produced another B class event, a B2.3 flare at 0547UT.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
Solar wind velocity ranged between 340km/s and 320km/s. Bz ranged
between +/-3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21101112
Darwin 3 21101112
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 4 22001122
Camden 1 10001111
Canberra 2 11001111
Hobart 2 11101111
Casey(Ant) 8 23321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 1001 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Feb 12 Unsettled
16 Feb 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels over the
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours followed by mostly Unsettled conditions with
possible Active periods due to coronal hole effects on 15Feb-16Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
15 Feb Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Feb -15 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
16 Feb -20 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 12 February
and is current for interval 12-14 February. Depressed conditions
observed during local day for Equatorial/Northern AUS regions
with some disturbed periods. Notable sporadic E observed again
for low to mid latitudes over the last 24 hours. Southern AUS/NZ
regions had mostly normal conditions but with depressed MUFs
during local night. Antarctic regions had mostly normal ionospheric
support. MUF depressions ranging from 10% to 30% are expected
for low to mid latitudes over the next 3 days with possible disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 41400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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