[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 11 10:38:04 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low.
The visible solar disc remains spotless and activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity ranged
between 280km/s and 300km/s. Bz ranged between +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22101111
Darwin 3 21101112
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 4 22101112
Camden 3 21111011
Canberra 1 11101000
Hobart 3 22101101
Casey(Ant) 7 33311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 4 1000 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 4 Quiet
12 Feb 4 Quiet
13 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels over the
last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
12 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
13 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Feb -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Feb -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 8 February
and is current for interval 9-11 February. Depressed conditions
observed for local day for Northern AUS regions and local night
for Equatorial regions. Notable sporadic E observed for low to
mid latitudes over the last 24 hours. Southern AUS/NZ regions
had mostly normal conditions with some depressed periods during
local day and night. Antarctic regions had normal ionospheric
support. Similar depressed conditions for low to mid latitudes
are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 30900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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