[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 9 10:29:25 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind
speeds ranged between about 300 and 330 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 12100111
Darwin 2 22100101
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 2 12100101
Camden 2 11100111
Canberra 1 01100001
Hobart 1 11100101
Casey(Ant) 7 23321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 5 Quiet
10 Feb 5 Quiet
11 Feb 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
10 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
11 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 45% depressed.
Some night spread F observed at Niue.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 45% depressed.
Sporadic E observed at Cocos Is. 06-10 and 19-21 UT
and Townsville 14-21 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Brisbane and Learmonth and Norfolk Is. MUFs were near
predicted monthly values to 30% depressed; sporadic E
observed at Brisbane and Norfolk Is. 15-21 UT. Higher
latitude station MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values with sporadic E observed 11-19 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
30% at Macquarie Is. 12-17 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
10 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
11 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 8 February
and is current for interval 9-11 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 25300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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