[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 31 10:33:35 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 79/19
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Solar
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 2 10110002
Townsville 4 21111112
Learmonth 2 11010002
Canberra 0 02000000
Hobart 1 11010001
Casey(Ant) 6 32221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 2 Quiet
01 Jan 2 Quiet
02 Jan 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed throughout
the region today. Similar conditions may be expected for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
01 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
02 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Periods of sporadic-E conditions observed throughout
the UT day at Darwin, Brisbane and Norfolk Island. Generally
depressed conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions. Recurrence
and continuing low solar activity suggests possible occasional
MUF depressions of 10 to 20%, mainly Equatorial/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 28300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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