[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 15 10:37:35 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 84/26
COMMENT: A number of small, B-class events were observed over
the past 24 hours. Region 1035 (N31 E07) was numbered. The background
x-ray flux remains somewhat elevated with the slight possibility
of a C-class x-ray event. The solar wind speed remained below
300 km/s over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic
field showed a prolonged period of southward Bz to ~ -7 nT from
02-09 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Mostly quiet. Isolated
unsettled to active periods at higher latitudes in the first half of
the 24 hours.
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 23111112
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 5 22111212
Learmonth 5 22111221
Canberra 2 12100001
Hobart 4 13210101
Casey(Ant) 11 34-22222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0011 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 5 Quiet
16 Dec 5 Quiet
17 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the first half of yesterday
is likely due to the prolonged period of southward IMF Bz noted
above.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
16 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
17 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
14-19 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% with depressions to 40% 06-16 UT.
Night spread F observed. Sporadic E observed 06-09
UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed during
the day with depressions to 30% at night. Sporadic E
observed at times between 08 and 23 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 30% at times. Sporadic E observed mostly from
00-02, 07-23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
at times.
16 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
at times.
17 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
at times.
COMMENT: Summertime sporadic E may affect communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 266 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 11600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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