[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 29 09:38:15 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind speed decreased
from 380km/s at 0000UT to be ~310km/s at the time of this report.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 2 22100011
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 6 33211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1100 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 4 Quiet
30 Aug 4 Quiet
31 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Bz ranged between +/-3nT over the UT day. Quiet conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Depressed conditions during local day for Equatorial and
Northern AUS regions. Enhanced conditions during local night
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and variable conditions for Antarctic
regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days,
with continued depressed periods for Equatorial/Northern AUS
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 55200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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