[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 27 09:52:34 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind speed was
to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 22210011
Darwin 2 21210001
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 2 12200000
Hobart 2 21210001
Casey(Ant) 6 32221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 6 Quiet
28 Aug 6 Quiet
29 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day, with a sustained
southward period between 0120UT and 0730UT. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected for the next 3 days, with a chance of isolated Unsettled
periods due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variable conditions during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Depressed conditions during local night for Equatorial
regions and during local day for Northen AUS regions. Normal
ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Variable conditions
for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for
the next 3 days, with continued depressed periods for Equatorial
and Northern AUS regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 53500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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