[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 17 09:19:07 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. The solar wind speed
ranged from 280 to 265 km/s and is expected to remain in this
range or slightly above for today, 17 August. However, expect
the solar wind to increase to over 400 late in the UT day, 18
August due to a recurrent coronal hole. Expect the solar wind
to continue to increase on 19 August to over 500 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 2 02200001
Townsville 4 12211112
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 2 11111001
Casey(Ant) 2 11111011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1010 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 4 Quiet
18 Aug 12 Unsettled
19 Aug 20 active
COMMENT: Expect quiet levels of geomagnetic activity for today,
17 August. However, late in the UT day on 18 August and on 19
August expect an increase of activity to unsettled and active
levels with possible isolated cases of minor storm levels,
particularly at higher latitudes during local night time hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed slightly during local day,
Enhanced slightly during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 1 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 1 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Spread F (Fs) noted at Norfolk Island during the local
night time hours. Sporadic E (Es) was observed at Cocos Island
through out most of the UT day. Hobart observed Es prior to sunrise
between 1700 and 2000 UT. Expect cases of Es and Fs in the Australian
Region over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 290 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 14700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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