[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 6 09:55:39 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. The solar wind speed Vsw
was average over the UT day, around 380 km/sec. Vsw expected
to remain average for the next day and increase on day two due
to a recurrent coronal hole. IMF Bz was southwards for an extended
period (02-08UT) early in the day, encouraging merging with the
geomagnetic field, but then swung strongly northwards and has
unusually remained in the +5-10nT range since 08UT, shutting
off geomagnetic merging.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 12222101
Darwin 5 12222102
Townsville 7 12232212
Learmonth 6 22232101
Camden 3 11122101
Canberra 2 01122001
Hobart 5 11133101
Casey(Ant) 5 22222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1110 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Aug 4 Quiet
08 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to slightly elevate
from Quiet to sporadic Unsettled levels in the next day at mid
and low latitudes, due to a moderate increase in the solar wind
speed from a recurrent coronal hole. Polar latitudes reached
Active levels near the auroral oval early in the UT day due to
a prolonged IMF Bz southwards. However the IMF has been strongly
northwards (+5-10nT) since 08UT, and if it remains so during
the expected enhanced solar wind speed, it may mute the response
of the geomagnetic field as the solar IMF and geomagnetic field
will not be merged.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 10 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
07 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be slightly elevated in most parts
of Aus/NZ regions for the next day Onset of Unsettled geomagnetic
activity from a recurrent coronal hole on 05-06 August (UT) will
probably raise MUFs slightly. Nightime spread-F was observed
at sub-equatorial latitudes (Learmonth, Darwin, Brisbane) and
more strongly at equatorial latitudes (Cocos Is, Niue). A very
large transient MUF enhancement was observed at Niue pre-dusk
(03-06UT). Some mid-latitude stations also observed strong spread-F
post dusk (Hobart) and near dawn (Sydney). Es was observed near
dusk at Brisbane and late afternoon at Learmonth.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 21600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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