[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 5 09:51:45 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. The solar wind speed Vsw
was average over the UT day, declining from 380 to 330km/sec
but increasing again past 370 km/sec by the end of the day. IMF
Bz was mildly southwards for most of the day, encouraging merging
with the geomagnetic field. Vsw expected to remain average for
the next day and increase on day two due to a recurrent coronal
hole. The STEREO-B spacecraft, already in the coronal hole high-speed
solar wind stream shows widely scattered Vsw but the average
is not far above 400km/sec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12101111
Darwin 3 12101112
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 4 22111121
Camden 3 -2102111
Canberra 2 12101011
Hobart 3 12102111
Casey(Ant) 3 1-211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 3332 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 5 Quiet
06 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at mostly
Quiet levels for the next day at mid and low latitudes. Expect
a increase in geomagnetic activity on day two (06 August UT)
with Unsettled conditions, due to a moderate increase in the
solar wind speed from a recurrent coronal hole. Polar latitudes
only reached Unsettled levels near the auroral oval, despite
prolonged IMF Bz southwards, as magnitude was mostly less than
2nT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 8 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
07 Aug 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next day (05 August). Onset
of Unsettled geomagnetic activity from a recurrent coronal hole
on 06 August (UT) will probably raise MUFs slightly. Strong
nightime spread-F was observed at sub-equatorial latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 56800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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