[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 16 09:31:57 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over
the last 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
Solar wind speed declined slowly during the past 24 hours
from approximately 340 km/s down to 300 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed
within +/-2nT of the normal value for most part of the UT
day today. Solar activity is expected to stay at very
low levels for the next three days. However, some
strengthening in the solar wind stream may be observed
on 17 April due to the effect of a recurrent small coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22111211
Darwin 3 11111211
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22112211
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 11011100
Hobart 1 11011100
Casey(Ant) 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1001 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 5 Quiet
17 Apr 7 Quiet to unsettled
18 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
on 15 April. Some rise in geomagentic activity level may be
possible on 17 April because of the effect of a recurrent
small coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity may be expected to
stay mostly at quiet levels on 16 and 18 April with the
possibility of rise upto unsettled levels on 17 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days with some possibility
of minor to mild degradations on high latitude locations on
17 April due to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 3 near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
18 Apr 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions across Aust/NZ regions are expected
to remain mostly normal during the next three days with some
possibility of minor degradations in the southern parts on
17 April due to an expected slight rise in geomagentic activity
levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 23900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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