[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 6 09:30:43 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity increased from 300km/s at 0000UT to be 400km/s
at the time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the
UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels
over the next 3 days as the visible solar disc remains spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 4 12220112
Townsville 7 23221122
Learmonth 4 22221110
Camden - --------
Canberra 2 12110000
Hobart 2 12110001
Casey(Ant) 7 23321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 5 Quiet
07 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Apr 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2
days with Unsettled conditions from 08Apr due to coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
07 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
08 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Apr -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed for all regions over the
last 24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric support is expected
for the next 2 days with possible MUF depressions of 20%-30%
for Southern AUS/NZ and Anarctic regions on 08Apr due an expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 279 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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