[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 4 10:44:33 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours as
the visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind velocity
continued to decline from 320km/s at 0000UT to be ~280km/s at
the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to remain
at Very Low levels over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Darwin 2 11101102
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 2 11101111
Camden - --------
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 0 00001100
Casey(Ant) 4 11211221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3 1000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr 7 Quiet
06 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the
next 2 days with an expected increase in solar wind velocity.
Quiet conditions expected for 06Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
05 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
06 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
05 Apr -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
06 Apr -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed for all regions over the
last 24 hours with enhancements for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Mostly normal ionospheric support is expected for the next 24
hours. Possible depressed conditions for mid to high latitudes
on 05Apr-06Apr with disturbed conditions for high latitudes due
to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 59100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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