[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 29 09:43:43 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is presently spotless. A high
speed coronal hole solar wind stream is expected to impact the
Earth late in the UT day of 30 September to 1 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11112101
Darwin 3 11112101
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 22112100
Camden 2 11012000
Canberra 1 00012000
Hobart 2 11112000
Casey(Ant) 7 23322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 4 Quiet
30 Sep 8 Mostly quiet with unsettled to active levels
and minor storm periods at high latitudes possible
late in the UT day.
01 Oct 20 Mostly unsettled with active levels possible
and minor storm periods at high latitudes.
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next two
days. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase late in the
UT day of 30 September to 1 October as a coronal hole rotates
into a geoeffective position. Active levels may be possible during
this period with minor storm levels possible at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 15-30% at times.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep -5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Sep -5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Oct -5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs were observed at times for
northern-equatorial regions, otherwise MUFs were mostly near
predicted monthly values during the past 24 hours. Similar HF
conditions are expected for the next few days, with isolated
depressions of 15-30% possible at times for northern-equatorial
regions only. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed
at times at some stations during the past 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 31500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list