[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 26 09:55:22 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 67/0 66/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is presently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next few
days. There was a slight increase in solar wind speed and density
during the latter half of the UT day of 25 September. The IMF
z-component also showed excursions of greater than -5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11110122
Darwin 3 11110122
Townsville 6 22121222
Learmonth 5 11110223
Camden 2 01010121
Canberra 2 11010121
Hobart 3 11010122
Casey(Ant) 8 23211133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 1101 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 5 Quiet
27 Sep 4 Quiet
28 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at mostly quiet levels
during the past 24 hours, with an increase in activity observed
for high latitudes only as the result of variations in the solar
wind parameters observed during the latter half of the UT day
of 25 September. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the
next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed 15-30% at times otherwise mostly
near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 15-30% at times otherwise mostly
near predicted monthly values during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
27 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
28 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs were observed for
northern-equatorial regions, otherwise MUFs were mostly near
predicted monthly values during the past 24 hours. Similar HF
conditions are expected for the next few days, with isolated
depressions of 10-20% possible at times for northern-equatorial
regions. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed at
times at some stations during the past 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 293 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 33900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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