[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 12 09:47:09 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at the Very Low level today.
The solar disk continued to remain spotless. Solar wind speed
decreased further from 420 to 360km/sec, smoothly settling back
to average values. A sustained IMF Bz southward turning occurred
at 19UT and appears to be ending ~00UT but it has affected the
polar geomagnetic field. A recurrent coronal hole is visible
on SOHO EIT-195 and STEREO-B imagery and expected to be geoeffective
Low level for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 21101111
Darwin 3 22110111
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 2 10000211
Camden 1 11000101
Canberra 1 11000101
Hobart 2 10002101
Casey(Ant) 7 33211212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 4 Quiet
13 Sep 7 Quiet
14 Sep 18 active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was very Quiet at mid and low
latitudes. Polar latitudes were at Quiet to Unsettled levels,
with Storm conditions at the end of the UT due to a sustained
IMF Bz southward turning which occurred at 19UT. Bz appears to
be ending returning to northward ~00UT so the disturbance should
not become global. Geomagnetic activity should remain at Quiet
levels over the next 2 days. A recurrent coronal hole is visible
on SOHO EIT 195 and STEREO-B imagery and expected to be geoeffective
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
14 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Strong equatorial enhancements and depletions evident.
See Australasian region summary.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 1 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
13 Sep 0 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
14 Sep -5 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF values across Australian/NZ regions were close to
average at mid-latitudes. There were again both large depressions
and enhancements at equatorial latitudes (Cocos Is, Vanimo, Niue).
Sub-equatorial sites (Darwin, Learmonth) also had the same pattern
but weaker. Conditions are expected to be normal to slightly
depressed compared with predicted monthly T values for the next
2 days and a recurrent coronal hole should take effect ~14th
Sept, increasing geomag activity and decreasing MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 60100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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