[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 26 10:12:27 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained steady at nominal levels and
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained
mostly neutral over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Darwin 2 11001111
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 3 11111112
Camden 1 10001010
Canberra 0 10001000
Hobart 1 11001001
Casey(Ant) 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 4 Quiet
27 Oct 4 Quiet
28 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today.
Similar conditions are expected days one and two. Chance of unsettled
periods day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Poor-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
27 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct -18 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
27 Oct -18 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
28 Oct -15 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions and periods of disturbance
observed in the Equatorial/Northern Australian regions. Mild
to moderate depressions extending at times to Central Aus latitudes.
Periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus, mainly local night.
Similar ionospheric conditions may be expected for the next three
days. Variable and at times poor HF propagation conditions possible
Equatorial/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 51800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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