[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 6 10:05:58 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Oct             07 Oct             08 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Active region 1003 does not show spots at this time.
The solar wind decreased from 570 to 480 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/-3 nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21211112
      Darwin               4   21211102
      Townsville           7   222-----
      Learmonth            5   22211112
      Camden               3   11211011
      Canberra             2   11210001
      Hobart               3   11211101
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   3522 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Oct     6    Quiet 
07 Oct     4    Quiet 
08 Oct     2    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Oct   -21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Oct    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
07 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted extended sporadic E at Vanimo between 14-20 UT 
in the early morning hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 602 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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