[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 6 10:05:58 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Active region 1003 does not show spots at this time.
The solar wind decreased from 570 to 480 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/-3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21211112
Darwin 4 21211102
Townsville 7 222-----
Learmonth 5 22211112
Camden 3 11211011
Canberra 2 11210001
Hobart 3 11211101
Casey(Ant) 9 3-322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 3522 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 6 Quiet
07 Oct 4 Quiet
08 Oct 2 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Noted extended sporadic E at Vanimo between 14-20 UT
in the early morning hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 602 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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