[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 28 10:14:36 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The
visible solar disk is spotless. A recurrent coronal hole wind
stream is in steady decline with solar wind speeds dropping back
below 500km/s over the UT day. IMF relatively stable. Expect
continuing decline in solar wind speed 28 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled.
Active periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 32222222
Darwin 9 43121222
Townsville 9 32222223
Learmonth 9 22222332
Camden 6 22212222
Canberra 6 22212222
Hobart 7 32212212
Casey(Ant) 15 3--33333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 8 2321 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 3 Quiet
29 Nov 2 Quiet
30 Nov 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed 27
Nov with some Minor Storm periods at high latitudes. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions next three days (28-30 Nov) with some isolated
Active periods possible 28 Nov at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Nov -40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Nov -40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 27 November
and is current for interval 27-29 November. Depressed ionospheric
conditions at all latitudes. Sporadic-E observed at multiple
southern Australian stations overnight. Continuing depressed
ionospheric conditions expected due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 603 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 180000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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