[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 13 10:31:55 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Region
1008 produced a B1.4 class flare at 0009UT. Solar wind speed
has not increased and is ~320km/s at the time of this report.
Bz, the north/south component of interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between +/-3nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days. Region 1008 has not displayed
any significant increase in spot size over the last 24 hours,
but still has a slight chance of producing a C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 3 11111111
Camden 2 10111011
Canberra 2 10111011
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 9 33321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0101 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 5 Quiet
14 Nov 5 Quiet
15 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next three days, with posible
Unsettled periods for 14Nov-15Nov due to the effects of a high
latitude positioned coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
15 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov -26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Nov -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
15 Nov -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions again observed during local night
for Northern Australia/Equatorial regions. Southern Australia
and NZ regions HF conditions improved with mostly normal ionospheric
support over the UT day. Mostly normal conditions for Antarctic
regions. Depressed conditions expected for low latitude regions
and mostly normal conditions for all other regions for the next
3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 39200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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