[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 30 09:53:10 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible disk is presently spotless. Solar wind speeds
ranged from approximately 520 km/s down to 420 km/s during the
past 24 hours under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream.
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain mildly elevated over
the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22222321
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 10 22323322
Learmonth 7 22222321
Camden 6 22212221
Canberra 5 22212220
Hobart 5 21------
Casey(Ant) 12 333224-1
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Camden 18 (Quiet)
Gnangara 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3232 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isolated active periods and storm levels at
high latitudes.
31 May 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isolated active periods and storm levels at
high latitudes.
01 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the
next few days with isolated active and storm levels possible
at high latitudes for 30-31 May due to the influence of a coronal
hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
31 May 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
01 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Depressions of 5-15% were observed at times across the
Aus/NZ region, otherwise MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values during the past 24 hours. Mostly normal conditions are
expected for the next few days with isolated depressions of 5-15%
possible at times. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed
at times at most stations across the Aus/NZ region during 29
May and are possible at times during the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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