[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 20 09:08:29 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low, with just two small
beta-class spot groups on the visible disk. The solar wind velocity
and density and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) total
field all increased in magnitude over the UT day, a precursor
to the coronal hole expected to arrive today (20 May). STEREO-B
data shows the Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) on the leading
edge of the coronal hole has some large IMF fluctuations and
extended periods of southwards IMF, expected to produce significant
geomagnetic activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22232211
Darwin 7 22232211
Townsville 10 32232322
Learmonth 8 22232321
Camden 5 11132201
Canberra 5 11132201
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 6 22222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 19 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1101 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 30 Active to Minor storm
21 May 15 Unsettled to Active
22 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 17 May and is
current for interval 18-20 May. The geomagnetic field is expected
to range from Unsettled early in the UT day (20 May), becoming
Active with Minor Storm periods as the expected coronal hole/CIR
becomes geoeffective. Conditions are expected to continue at
Unsettled-Active levels 21 May before returning to mostly Unsettled
conditions 22 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
21 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 16 near predicted monthly values
21 May 10 near predicted monthly values
22 May 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was normal over
the UT day, expected to continue. MUFs are expected to remain
near monthly predicted values 20 May despite the geomagnetic
disturbance on 20 and 21 May. A gradual decline in MUFs may be
expected over the following 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 38700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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