[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 6 09:44:04 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind parameters
remain moderately elevated around 600km/s due to a coronal hole
wind stream. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
New sunspot group AR993 is currently a simple BXO beta magnetic
configuration http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/2
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/3/3/4
and is slowly growing in complexity. It grew from 3 spots yesterday
to 5 spots today and increased in size.
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/3/5
Probability of flaring from AR993 is currently low but can be
followed at http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/3/6
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/2/5
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22312222
Darwin 8 32312222
Townsville 10 23312332
Learmonth 10 22313332
Camden 6 22302221
Canberra 6 22302221
Hobart 8 22313222
Casey(Ant) 12 43312-32
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice 0 (Quiet)
cul NA
cdn NA
gna NA
can NA
hbt NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1233 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remain moderately elevated due to continuing
coronal hole wind stream. IMF Bz was equal north/south
with no extended southward periods to cause geomagnetic merging.
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid to low latitudes
with isolated active to storm intervals observed at high latitudes
only. Expect similar but quietening conditions for the next two
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 12 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
07 May 12 0 to 5% above predicted monthly values
08 May 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some short-term variability observed Equatorial/N Aus
regions over the UT day. http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/2/1
Regional foF2 and T-index near or slightly above monthly average
http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/6/2
http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/6/1
probably due to some enhanced EUV from AR993 and possibly excitation
from low-moderate geomagnetic activity from the coronal-hole
high-speed solar-wind stream. See Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF)
report http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/2/4
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 537 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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