[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 4 09:28:49 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind parameters
are mildly elevated due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 10 22333222
Darwin 9 22233222
Townsville 11 32333222
Learmonth 13 22334233
Camden 10 22333222
Canberra 10 22333222
Hobart 7 12223222
Casey(Ant) 12 33333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12 4430 3202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 12 Unsettled
05 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: There was a moderate increase in solar wind velocity
around 12UT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field remained mostly neutral over the UT day. The geomagnetic
field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active intervals at
high latitudes only. Expect similar conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable localised enhancements/disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions low to mid
latitudes. Generally weak night-time ionosphere observed S
Aus/Antarctic regions. Disturbed periods possible 04 - 05 May
mainly at high latitudes in association with elevated
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
N.B. ACE data not available at this time.
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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