[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 4 09:28:49 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind parameters 
are mildly elevated due to a coronal hole wind stream. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22333222
      Darwin               9   22233222
      Townsville          11   32333222
      Learmonth           13   22334233
      Camden              10   22333222
      Canberra            10   22333222
      Hobart               7   12223222
      Casey(Ant)          12   33333222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   4430 3202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May    12    Unsettled 
05 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: There was a moderate increase in solar wind velocity 
around 12UT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field remained mostly neutral over the UT day. The geomagnetic 
field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active intervals at 
high latitudes only. Expect similar conditions next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 May     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Variable localised enhancements/disturbances.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
05 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
06 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions low to mid 
latitudes. Generally weak night-time ionosphere observed S
Aus/Antarctic regions. Disturbed periods possible 04 - 05 May 
mainly at high latitudes in association with elevated 
geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
N.B. ACE data not available at this time.

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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