[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 27 10:41:58 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Regions
987(S08E07), 988(S08E32) and 989(S10E61) are all C-flare
capable. An isolated M-flare may also be possbile from
region 989. The previously anticipated coronal hole
effect started around mid-day today as the solar wind
speed gradually increased from 400 to 600 km/s between
1200 and 1300UT. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic fields (Bz) stayed close to the normal value until
around 0400UT and remained slightly to moderately (upto around
-10nT) negative for most part of the remaining day today.
Solar wind stream is expected to remain strengthened due to
the effect of the currently geoeffective coronal hole for the
next two days. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly
at very low to low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet to active with
some minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 19 22344443
Darwin 14 22333433
Townsville 19 22344443
Learmonth 28 22345554
Camden 21 22345443
Canberra 21 22345443
Hobart 26 22355453
Casey(Ant) 19 33343434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0001 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 25 Mostly active, some minor storm periods possible.
28 Mar 18 Active to unsettled.
29 Mar 10 Unsettled to quiet.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 23 March
and is current for interval 25-28 March. Geomagnetic activity
rose from quiet to active levels today with periods of minor
storm and some isolated periods of major storm at high latitudes
due to the anticipated coronal hole effect. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain mostly at active levels for most parts of
the globe with possibility of some minor storm periods on mid
and high latitudes on 27 March. Isolated major storm periods
may also be observed at high latitude locations on this day.
Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decline to
active to unsettled and then to quiet levels through 28 and 29
March as the coronal hole effect gradually diminishes over this
period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Fair Fair Fair-Poor
28 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be expected, especially on high and
mid latitudes on 27 and 28 March due to an anticipated
continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods
of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 4 Depressed 5 to 20%.
28 Mar 6 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
29 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be expected on 27 and 28 March,
especially across Southern Aus/NZ regions due to an
anticipated continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 47200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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