[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 25 10:51:02 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. Region
987(S08E35) showed growth in area and spot number over
the last 24 hours and also produced a few B-class flares.
Region 988(S09E58) also produced similar flares. Solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 460 to 420 km/s by
2300UT today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic fields (Bz) stayed slightly positive for most part
of the UT day today. Solar wind stream is expected to get
strengthened due to an anticipated effect of a recurrent
coronal hole. The recurrent pattern of the last three
rotation shows this coronal hole to be increasing in strength.
Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at very low
to low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 22121101
Camden 5 221-----
Canberra 3 22111002
Hobart 4 12111212
Casey(Ant) 5 2-311112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3332 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
26 Mar 25 Active
27 Mar 25 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 23 March
and is current for interval 25-28 March. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to gradually increase to unsettled levels in the
second half of the UT day on 25 March and then to active levels
on 26 and 27 March for most locations due to the anticipated
strengthening in the solar wind stream on these days. Minor
storm periods may also be observed at high and some mid
latitude locations at times on 26 and 27 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Mar Fair Fair Fair-Poor
27 Mar Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations on 25 March with the possibility of minor
degradations and depressions in the second half of the day
on high latitude locations. Minor to moderate degradations
in conditions and depressions in MUFs may be expected,
especially on high and mid latitudes on 26 and 27 March
due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with minor degradations at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 7 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 0 Depressed 5 to 20%.
27 Mar 0 Depressed 5 to 20%.
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be expected on 26 and 27 March,
especially across Southern Aus/NZ regions due to an anticipated
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. Minor
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may
also be possible on these locations in the second half of
25 March as well.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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