[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 23 10:33:22 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Mar             24 Mar             25 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The ACE spacecraft plots show that the Solar wind has 
remain around 450 km/s over the last 24 hours. Also the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component fluctuated between +/-6 nT. 
No spots on the visible disk of the sun at this time, however, 
LASCO C3 imager shows a weak CME IP erupting from the east limb, 
which commenced around 1600UT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Darwin               4   21111112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   11012112
      Camden               3   11111012
      Canberra             2   11011012
      Hobart               4   11111212
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2101 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Mar     4    Quiet 
24 Mar     4    Quiet 
25 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic activity to increase on 
25 March as a recurrent coronal hole reaches its geoeffective 
location on the solar disk. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Mar    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
24 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
25 Mar     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: High latitudes showed ocassional spread F conditions, 
particularly at local night hours. For more detail on particular 
regions and times go to "www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3" to view 
the ionograms. Expect slight depressions at low latitudes and 
the North Australian region due to very low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    94500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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