[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 3 09:35:08 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The visible disk is presently spotless. Solar wind speed
has declined from about 630 km/s to currently around 520 km/s
over the past 24 hours. A coronal mass ejection was observed
from the east limb late 1st/early 2nd June. This CME is not
expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 22111211
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22111221
Camden 2 12101110
Canberra 2 12001110
Hobart 4 12111211
Casey(Ant) 7 23221222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2211 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 5 Quiet
04 Jun 5 Quiet
05 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Active levels have been observed at high latitudes over
the last 24 hours. Isolated unsettled to active levels possible
at high latitudes over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions to
20%. Depressions to 60% observed at Vanimo 10-13 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Night spread F observed at all latitudes. Sporadic E
observed at lower latitudes during the daytime.
Spread F expected to continue for 3 June and may degrade
night communications. Occasional depressions to 25% possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 575 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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