[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 28 09:30:16 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind velocity rose from 380km/s at 0000UT to be 420km/s at the
time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11121112
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 2 01011012
Camden 2 01021012
Canberra 2 01021012
Hobart 2 00121012
Casey(Ant) 5 22211122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 6 Quiet
29 Jul 4 Quiet
30 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next 3
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
30 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Depressed periods during local day for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions with continued
enhancements during local night. Ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions ranged between normal and fair. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days with possible MUF depressions of
10%-20% for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions during local day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 84300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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