[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 30 10:14:16 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: There is a spot group at S09E60 with three spots, no 
other spots noted. The solar wind speed is presently around 400 
km/s and is expected to remain near this speed for the next 2 
days. Expect the solar wind to increase to about 600 km/s on 
1 February due to a coronal hole effects. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between 
+/-4nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23222111
      Darwin               4   22121101
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            5   22222101
      Camden               6   13222111
      Canberra             4   13221001
      Hobart               4   13212001
      Casey(Ant)          11   34332112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1101 0002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan     4    Quiet 
31 Jan     4    Quiet 
01 Feb    18    active 

COMMENT: Expect unsettle to active level of geomagnetic activity 
on 1 February due to a high speed solar wind stream effects with 
a possibility of isolated minor storm levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Jan    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10% during the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Regionsed 
      Near predicted monthly values during the day,
      Depressed by 15% during the night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
31 Jan    12    near predicted monthly values 
01 Feb    12    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Sporadic E was noted at Macquarie Is., Hobart, and
Christchurch particularly during early morning hours. 
Sporadic E was also notice at in the Northern to Mid regions 
of Australia particularly during the local day and evening hours. 
Expect these trend to continue. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    65500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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