[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 28 10:12:56 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low
levels today as well. The ACE solar wind stream data
were not available for nearly first 8 hours of the UT
day today. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from
420 km/s to 390 km/s between 0800 and 2300UT today. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor to mild (between +3 and -5nT)fluctuations
today staying southwards for relatively longer periods to
time. Solar disc continues to remain spotless and solar
activity is expected to continue to stay at very low levels
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21111122
Darwin 4 21011122
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 6 22212222
Camden 4 11111122
Canberra 3 11100122
Hobart 4 11111122
Casey(Ant) 9 3-321123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2212 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 5 Quiet
29 Jan 5 Quiet
30 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained predominantly at
quiet levels today and is expected to remain at similar levels
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E layers were observed at
several low and some mid latitude stations. These Es layers
sometimes partly and sometimes fully blanketed the F-regions
and at times caused communication difficulties using F-regions.
Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed on low
latitudes at times today, possibly due to a weak ionosphere.
This behaviour of the ionosphere may show up at times for the
next few days. Otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal on most locations over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day with
periods of depressions and degradations,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
29 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
30 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E-layers, that were observed
across some stations in Aus/NZ regions, at times caused
communication difficulties using F-regions today. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal across Aus/NZ regions
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 89800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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