[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 28 10:12:56 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jan             29 Jan             30 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low 
levels today as well. The ACE solar wind stream data 
were not available for nearly first 8 hours of the UT 
day today. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 
420 km/s to 390 km/s between 0800 and 2300UT today. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) showed minor to mild (between +3 and -5nT)fluctuations 
today staying southwards for relatively longer periods to 
time. Solar disc continues to remain spotless and solar 
activity is expected to continue to stay at very low levels 
for the next few days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111122
      Darwin               4   21011122
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            6   22212222
      Camden               4   11111122
      Canberra             3   11100122
      Hobart               4   11111122
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-321123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2212 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jan     5    Quiet 
29 Jan     5    Quiet 
30 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained predominantly at 
quiet levels today and is expected to remain at similar levels 
for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E layers were observed at 
several low and some mid latitude stations. These Es layers 
sometimes partly and sometimes fully blanketed the F-regions 
and at times caused communication difficulties using F-regions. 
Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed on low 
latitudes at times today, possibly due to a weak ionosphere. 
This behaviour of the ionosphere may show up at times for the 
next few days. Otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain 
mostly normal on most locations over the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Jan   -20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day with 
      periods of depressions and degradations,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jan    -5    near predicted monthly values 
29 Jan    -5    near predicted monthly values 
30 Jan    -5    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E-layers, that were observed 
across some stations in Aus/NZ regions, at times caused 
communication difficulties using F-regions today. HF conditions 
are expected to remain mostly normal across Aus/NZ regions 
for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    89800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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