[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 08
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 6 10:55:13 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no significant flare activity. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 2 days. Solar wind velocity increased from 400km/s
at 0000UT to be 700km/s at the time of this report. Bz increased
in magnitude as well and fluctuated between +/-10nT. This increase
is possible from transient effects from recent CME's as well
as the characteristic rise in solar wind velocity, tempearure
and magnetic field of a coronal hole high speed windstream. Elevated
solar wind stream conditions are expected to continue for the
next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Unsettled to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 22 33544333
Darwin 16 32443233
Townsville 20 33543333
Learmonth 27 33555333
Camden 21 33544233
Canberra 22 33544333
Hobart 20 33534333
Casey(Ant) 23 4--44343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
07 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active conditions observed over the last
24 hours with isolated Minor Storm periods. Unsettled to Active
conditions expected over the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some depressed periods for low to mid latitudes over
the last 24 hours with isolated enhanced periods. Otherwise mostly
normal HF conditions. Possible disturbed conditions expected
for mid to high latitudes for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jan -10 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 5 January
and is current for interval 5-6 January. Local daytime MUF depressions
of 20% observed for Southern AUS/NZ regions during the last 24
hours. Mostly normal conditions otherwise for all other regions,
with enhanced periods for Northern AUS regions. With the increase
in geomagnetic activity, depressed periods can be expected for
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions with isolated disturbed
periods for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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