[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 3 10:48:59 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 87/30 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region
980 produced a long duration C1.2 class flare at 1000UT with
an associated CME observed in the LASCO imagery. This CME was
not earth directed. Further C-class flares are likely from this
region over the next few days with the small chance of M-class
flares. Solar wind velocity dropped from 350km/s at 0000UT to
be 320km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between
+/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22211122
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 4 21110222
Camden 4 11111122
Canberra 3 11110112
Hobart 4 12211111
Casey(Ant) 8 33321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 7 Quiet
04 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours.
Unsettled to Active periods possible over the next 3 days due
to transient effects from recent CME's.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
04 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
05 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Depressed MUF values observed at low to mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions for high
latitudes. Possible improvement in ionospheric support over the
next few days due to the recent increase in solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jan -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jan -10 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 2 January
and is current for interval 2-4 January. MUF depressions of 20%
observed at times across Northern AUS/Equatorial regions during
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions
with notable sporadic E. Mostly normal conditions for Antarctic
regions. Similar conditions expected for the next few days with
a possible improvement for mid to low latitudes from increased
solar activity. Chance of disturbed ionospheric conditions for
polar regions due to transient effects from recent CME's.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 54600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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