[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 1 10:24:13 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: A eastward directed CME was observed in association
with the C8-flare at 0111UT on 31 December from solar region
10980 (returning region 10978) located on the SE limb. Further
C-class flares are likely from this region over the next few
days with the small chance of M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 12222222
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville 7 12222232
Learmonth 8 12223232
Camden 5 12122122
Canberra 5 02122122
Hobart 5 02222122
Casey(Ant) 9 23-32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1100 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 5 Quiet
02 Jan 5 Quiet
03 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the Australian
region for the next few days. The CME observed on 31 December
is not expected to be geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
15-30% at times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jan -5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 0 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 31 December
and is current for interval 31 December to 2 January (SWFs) .
MUF depressions of up to 30% were observed at times across the
Australian region over the past 24 hours. Mild depressions are
expected at times over the Aus/NZ region for the next few days,
however, depressions should become less significant as solar
activity is expected to be mildly elevated over the next few
days. Blanketing Sporadic-E was again observed at times across
the Australian region during the past 24 hours which may have
effected HF propagation conditions. Continuing sporadic-E is
expected at times for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 41400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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