[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 29 10:51:32 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar
wind velocity continued to increase from 450km/s to be 650km/s
at the time of this report, due to the effects of the current
geoeffective coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Bz
fluctuated between +/-5nT over the UT day with notable
southward periods.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 33223232
Darwin 11 32232332
Townsville 13 333-2-33
Learmonth 4 21112111
Camden 11 232-3-32
Canberra 13 332-3-33
Hobart 15 333-3-33
Casey(Ant) 17 4--33-33
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 85 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 12 2201 2353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Feb 13 Unsettled to Active
01 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Active over the last
24 hours with minor storm levels at high latitudes. Mostly Unsettled
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible Active
periods for mid to high latitudes due to the current geoeffective
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions expected for 01Mar-02Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
01 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Feb -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with enhanced conditions during local night for
Equatorial/Northern AUS regions. Mostly normal conditions for
Southern AUS/NZ regions with some depressed periods. Antarctic
regions mostly normal. Possible MUF depressions of 20% for
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions and 10% for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions over the next 2 days, due to the
increase in geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal conditions
expected for 02Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 44000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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