[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 26 10:40:08 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar
wind velocity ranged between 380km/s-440km/s over the UT day
with Bz between +/-3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21121111
Darwin 3 21121101
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 12111212
Camden 2 11121001
Canberra 2 11120001
Hobart 3 11121011
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 5 Quiet
27 Feb 7 Quiet
28 Feb 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days. Recurrence
pattern suggests Unsettled to Active periods on day 3 of this
forecast.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with local day and overnight variable depressions for
Equatorial/Northern AUS regions and some sporadic E. Mostly
normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Variable
enhancements/depressions observed for Antarctic regions.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions over the next three days
with variable depressions possible for Equatorial/Northern
AUS and Antarctic regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A0.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 84400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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