[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 7 10:39:45 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Solar 
wind speeds have continued to decline slowly over the past 24 
hours down to approximately 360 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to increase again during 9 February as another coronal hole rotates 
into a geoeffective position. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11111221
      Darwin               4   21111221
      Townsville           9   22222332
      Learmonth            6   11111332
      Camden               3   01111221
      Canberra             2   00101221
      Hobart               3   11101221
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-322332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   2100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb     5    Quiet 
08 Feb     5    Quiet 
09 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next two 
days. Active levels are expected during 9 February as a coronal 
hole rotates around into a geoeffective position. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Feb     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
08 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
09 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions were observed 
at times at most of the Aus/NZ region stations during the past 
24 hours. Sporadic-E is again expected at times across the Aus/NZ 
region for 7 February. Mostly near predicted monthly values are 
expected for the Aus/NZ region for the next few days, with isolated 
depressions of 5-15% possible at times. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 460 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    55600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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