[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 11 10:30:53 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: A small coronal hole is nearing a geoeffective position.
New region 1009 (S26W59) has grown overnight.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11212212
Darwin 5 11111213
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 10222212
Camden 4 10212122
Canberra 3 00212112
Hobart 4 10212212
Casey(Ant) 7 22322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 5 Quiet
12 Dec 6 Quiet to unsettled
13 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
12 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
13 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec -40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
At Vanimo, 15-30% depressed, near predicted 15-23 UT.
At Niue, 15-40% depressed, near predicted 03-06 UT and
night spread F.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 45% depressed at
times. Depressions greater at the lower latitudes.
Sporadic E observed at Christchurch much of the time
and Norfolk Is. 00-04 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E at Macquarie
Is. observed 13-16 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
12 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
13 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Depressions may occasionally be deeper than predicted.
Sporadic E formation may disrupt or degrade F region communications
at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 53100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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