[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug:  65/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0

COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless and the solar wind is at 
approximately 360 km/s, normal for this period in the solar cycle. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated 
between +/- 3 nT. Expect very low solar activity for the next 
three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22100100
      Darwin               2   22110100
      Townsville           5   22211211
      Learmonth            1   21100000
      Camden               1   11100001
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               2   11100111
      Casey(Ant)           5   23211110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2310 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug     4    Quiet 
17 Aug     4    Quiet 
18 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Aug    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
17 Aug     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
18 Aug     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over the UT 
day with slight depressions at the equatorial/North Australia 
region due to low solar activity. Expect these conditions to 
prevail over the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 442 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    60000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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