[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 9 09:34:49 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind is just under
400 km/s, however is expected to increase to just over 600km/s
during the UT day (9 August) due to the Earth's entry into a
high speed wind stream associoated with a recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11000102
Darwin 3 12011112
Townsville 4 1221121-
Learmonth 2 11000102
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 0 10000001
Casey(Ant) 4 22111112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 22 active
10 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 August and
is current for interval 7-9 August. Expect the geomagnetic activity
to go from unsettled to active during the UT day with isolated
possiblities of minor storm levels due to the Earth entering
into a high speed solar wind stream. The disturbance will last
a couple days and slowly return to unsettled to quiet levels
by 11 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: At mid to high latitudes on 9-10 August HF usable frequencies
may be unstable due to ionospheric disturbances associated with
the geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug -5 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
10 Aug -5 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
11 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During the next two days expect the Equatorial/North
Australian regions to have slightly depressed to normal HF conditions.
Also expect the South Australian/Antarctica regions to have mildly
depressed HF conditions due to geomagnetic activity causing
ionospheric disturbances.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 42800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list