[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Aug             07 Aug             08 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0

COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind ranged from 
about 290 to 350 km/s over the past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112011
      Darwin               4   22111111
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            2   12111000
      Camden               2   01112000
      Canberra             2   01112000
      Hobart               2   11112000
      Casey(Ant)           3   11211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             7   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1001 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Aug     5    Quiet 
07 Aug     5    Quiet 
08 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Activity is expected to begin increasing on the 8th 
due to a recurrent coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Aug    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25% observed at Niue. Depressions to
      45% observed at Vanimo 07-14 UT. Night spread F
      observed at Niue and sporadic E observed at Vanimo
      12-18 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 30%. Night spread F observed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Aug     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 
07 Aug     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 
08 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 341 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    39600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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