[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 30 09:38:57 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue next 3 days. The partial halo CME associated
with the small B3 Xray flare of 26/1400UT is expected to impact
late 29 Apr to 30 Apr. A small coronal hole should move into
geoeffective position on 30 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 -3202111
Camden 2 21102100
Canberra 2 11102100
Hobart 4 12112111
Casey(Ant) 6 23221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 2123 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 12 Unsettled
01 May 15 Unsettled to Active
02 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet over the UT day
with isolated unsettled to active periods at high latitudes only.
A glancing blow from the CME of 26/1400UT may increase geomagnetic
activity on 30 Apr. A small coronal hole should also move into
geoeffective position early on 30 Apr. Mostly unsettled conditions
expected from late 30 Apr and into 01 May with isolated active
periods 01-02 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable enhancements and disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions 30 Apr.
Disturbed periods possible 30 Apr - 02 May mainly at high latitudes
in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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