[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 25 09:10:37 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue next 3 days. The coronal hole wind stream
kept solar wind speeds high over the UT day, currently near 600km/s.
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) showed some moderate
Bz component fluctuations in the first half of the day. STEREO
data indicates relatively stable IMF conditions on an elevated
solar wind speed can be expected over the next 24 hours (25 Apr).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 16 33444122
Darwin 12 333330--
Townsville 16 33444222
Learmonth 20 33445232
Camden 16 33444122
Canberra 16 33444122
Hobart 16 33444122
Casey(Ant) 13 34333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 32 3454 4554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 12 Unsettled
26 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field mostly ranged from Unsettled to
Active over the UT day due to a recurrent coronal hole. Some
moderate Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz fluctuations
in the first half of the UT day resulted in Active geomagnetic
conditions ~06-14 UT. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions 25 Apr
with isolated Active periods. Continuing Minor Storm periods
are possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: An active geomagnetic field resulted in degraded HF
conditions over the UT day, particularly in the Antarctic regions
and S.Aus. MUFs however were mostly near predicted monthly values
There was some variability in MUFs in the equatorial regions.
Some mild MUF depressions are expected across the Australian
region 25 April. Continuing variability in MUFs in the equatorial
regions is also expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 591 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 306000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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