[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 25 09:10:37 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours, 
expected to continue next 3 days. The coronal hole wind stream 
kept solar wind speeds high over the UT day, currently near 600km/s. 
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) showed some moderate 
Bz component fluctuations in the first half of the day. STEREO 
data indicates relatively stable IMF conditions on an elevated 
solar wind speed can be expected over the next 24 hours (25 Apr). 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 24 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   33444122
      Darwin              12   333330--
      Townsville          16   33444222
      Learmonth           20   33445232
      Camden              16   33444122
      Canberra            16   33444122
      Hobart              16   33444122
      Casey(Ant)          13   34333222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             32   3454 4554     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr    12    Unsettled 
26 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Apr     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field mostly ranged from Unsettled to 
Active over the UT day due to a recurrent coronal hole. Some 
moderate Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz fluctuations 
in the first half of the UT day resulted in Active geomagnetic 
conditions ~06-14 UT. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions 25 Apr 
with isolated Active periods. Continuing Minor Storm periods 
are possible at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair          
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Apr    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 
26 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 
27 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: An active geomagnetic field resulted in degraded HF 
conditions over the UT day, particularly in the Antarctic regions 
and S.Aus. MUFs however were mostly near predicted monthly values 
There was some variability in MUFs in the equatorial regions. 
Some mild MUF depressions are expected across the Australian 
region 25 April. Continuing variability in MUFs in the equatorial 
regions is also expected. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 591 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   306000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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