[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 23 09:18:35 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours, 
expected to continue next 3 days. A small spot group (AR0992) 
emerged at N12E03. The solar wind and IMF showed evidence of 
the arrival of a coronal hole wind stream late in the UT day, 
with large IMF fluctuations and an increased total B field and 
solar wind density. STEREO data indicates further large fluctuations 
in IMF Bz can be expected. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11111222
      Darwin               5   21111222
      Townsville           7   22221223
      Learmonth            4   11110222
      Camden               3   11010122
      Canberra             3   11010222
      Hobart               5   11112222
      Casey(Ant)           5   13121121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1211 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
24 Apr    12    Unsettled 
25 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the 
last 24 hours. The arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed 
solar wind stream is expected to produce mostly Unsettled conditions 
23-24 April, with isolated Active periods. Minor storm periods 
likely at high latitudes 23-24 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Apr     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
24 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 
25 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours for 
all regions with MUFs near or above predicted monthly values. 
Unsettled geomagnetic conditions 23-24 April may degrade HF
conditions, particularly in the Antarctic regions and S.Aus 
however MUFs are expected to remain mostly near predicted 
monthly values 23 April in a winter ionospheric response. 24 
April may see some mild MUF depressions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    66700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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