[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 7 09:52:30 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 600 km/s 
up to 750 km/s and declined slowly to approximately 620 km/s 
during the past 24 hours under the influence of a coronal hole 
wind stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline 
slowly over the next 24-48 hours. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels for the next few days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23334222
      Darwin              10   23333212
      Townsville          11   23333222
      Learmonth           12   23334222
      Camden              12   23334222
      Canberra            12   23334222
      Hobart              14   23344222
      Casey(Ant)          15   34433222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            68   (Active)
      Hobart              68   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             21   1103 3654     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance 
                of active periods and minor storm levels at high 
                latitudes. 
08 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes during 
the past 24 hours, with isolated active levels observed for the 
Australian region. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected 
for the Australian region for the next few days with the small 
chance of isolated active levels for 7 April. Active to minor 
storm levels are possible for high latitudes for 7-8 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Variable conditions during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to depressed up
      to 15-30% at times.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr    15    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
08 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressions of 15-30% were observed at times at high 
latitudes, othwerwise conditions for the Aus/NZ region were mostly 
normal to enhanced. Spread-F conditions have been observed at 
times at some stations during the past 24 hours which may have 
degraded HF communications. HF conditions are expected to be 
mostly normal for the Aus/NZ region for 7-9 April. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 609 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   242000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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